ホットスポットの移動:気候変動が侵略的植物の生息地の縮小と拡大を促進すると予測される。 Shifting hotspots: Climate change projected to drive contractions and expansions of invasive plant abundance habitats
Annette E. Evans, Catherine S. Jarnevich, Evelyn M. Beaury, Peder S. Engelstad, Nathan B. Teich, Jillian M. LaRoe, Bethany A. Bradley
Diversity and Distributions Published: 04 December 2023
Preventing the spread of range-shifting invasive species is a top priority for mitigating the impacts of climate change. Invasive plants become abundant and cause negative impacts in only a fraction of their introduced ranges, yet projections of invasion risk are almost exclusively derived from models built using all non-native occurrences and neglect abundance information.
We compiled abundance records for 144 invasive plant species from five major growth forms. We fit over 600 species distribution models based on occurrences of abundant plant populations, thus projecting which areas in the eastern United States (U.S.) will be most susceptible to invasion under current and +2°C climate change.
We identified current invasive plant hotspots in the Great Lakes region, mid-Atlantic region, and along the northeast coast of Florida and Georgia, each climatically suitable for abundant populations of over 30 invasive plant species. Under a +2°C climate change scenario, hotspots will shift an average of 213 km, predominantly towards the northeast U.S., where some areas are projected to become suitable for up to 21 new invasive plant species. Range shifting species could exacerbate impacts of up to 40 invasive species projected to sustain populations within existing hotspots. On the other hand, within the eastern U.S., 62% of species will experience decreased suitability for abundant populations with climate change. This trend is consistent across five plant growth forms.
We produced species range maps and state-specific watch lists from these analyses, which can inform proactive regulation, monitoring, and management of invasive plants most likely to cause future ecological impacts. Additionally, areas we identify as becoming less suitable for abundant populations could be prioritized for restoration of climate-adapted native species. This research provides a first comprehensive assessment of risk from abundant plant invasions across the eastern U.S.
園芸は、気候変動に伴う侵入植物の生息域の縮小と拡大を促進する可能性がある。 Horticulture could facilitate invasive plant range infilling and range expansion with climate change
Evelyn M Beaury, Jenica M Allen, Annette E Evans, Matthew E Fertakos, William G Pfadenhauer, Bethany A Bradley
BioScience Published:29 September 2023
Invasive plants are often sold as ornamental garden plants, but how often are species sold in the same locations as where they are invasive? To answer this question, we assessed the geography of ornamental plant sales in the United States in relation to existing invasions and potential invasion risk with climate change. Using a data set of 672 nurseries selling 89 invasive plants, we estimated the distance between nursery sales and invasive species’ observed distributions. We also used species range maps to identify nursery sales within current potential invaded ranges, as well as within species’ future potential ranges given climate change. Half of the species were sold by a nursery within 21 kilometers of an observed record of invasion. Under the current climate, horticulture could be seeding invasions for 73 of the 89 species studied, and horticulture could facilitate climate-driven range expansion of 25 of 89 species. Our results illustrate risks associated with horticultural introductions of invasive species, providing guidance for regulatory and educational interventions that reduce the spread of ongoing and future invasions.