気候変動が蚊の生息可能環境を拡大する可能性(Climate change could expand habitable environments for mosquitoes)

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2024-05-09 ロスアラモス国立研究所(LANL)

ロスアラモス国立研究所の研究チームは、気候変動が蚊の地理的分布をどのように拡大させるかをコンピュータモデルを用いてシミュレーションしました。この研究は「Journal of Climate Change and Health」に掲載され、気候変動に対して全9種の蚊が適応力を持つことが明らかになり、蚊媒介疾患の脅威が温暖化とともに続くことが示されました。蚊の分布域は拡大または極地方向への移動が予想され、赤道周辺は蚊が生息できないほど暑くなる可能性があります。これにより新たな地域が蚊媒介疾患のリスクに晒されることになります。

<関連情報>

気候変動に対応した南北アメリカにおけるヤブカとイエカの予測 Projections of Aedes and Culex mosquitoes across North and South America in response to climate change

Morgan E. Gorris, Andrew W. Bartlow, Travis Pitts, Carrie A. Manore
The Journal of Climate Change and Health  Available online:10 April 2024
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joclim.2024.100317

気候変動が蚊の生息可能環境を拡大する可能性(Climate change could expand habitable environments for mosquitoes)

Abstract

Introduction
Climate and land use change may cause the geographical range of mosquitoes to expand, shift, or contract, ultimately changing what communities are at risk for contracting mosquito-borne diseases. Across North and South America, mosquitoes from the Aedes and Culex genera are vectors for numerous diseases, including chikungunya, dengue, various equine encephalitis viruses, Saint Louis encephalitis virus, West Nile virus, yellow fever virus, and Zika virus. The goal of our study was to project the geographical distributions of important mosquito vectors across North and South America in response to climate change which is important information to inform public health planning.

Methods
We used an ecological niche model and future projections of climate and land use to project the geographical ranges of two Aedes species (Ae. aegypti, Ae. albopictus) and seven Culex species (Cx. erraticus, Cx. nigripalpus, Cx. pipiens, Cx. quinquefasciatus, Cx. restuans, Cx. salinarius, Cx. tarsalis) over North and South America in response to both a high (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway [SSP] 5, Representative Concentration Pathway [RCP] 8.5) and moderate (SSP2 RCP4.5) climate warming scenario through years 2050 and 2090.

Results
For SSP5 RCP8.5, six species (Ae. aegypti, Ae. albopictus, Cx. erraticus, Cx. nigripalpus, Cx. quinquefasciatus, Cx. restuans) are projected to expand in geographical range, two species (Cx. pipiens, Cx. tarsalis) are projected to shift in geographical range, and one species (Cx. salinarius) is projected to nearly remain the same. Five species (Ae. aegypti, Ae. albopictus, Cx. erraticus, Cx. nigripalpus, Cx. quinquefasciatus) show the largest increase in high habitat suitability (>0.5 on a 0-1 scale) for SSP5 RCP8.5, three species (Cx. pipiens, Cx. restuans, Cx. tarsalis) show the largest increase for SSP2 RCP4.5, and one species (Cx. salinarius) shows a relatively small decrease in response to both scenarios.

Conclusions
We found that all nine species responded resiliently to climate change under both the high and moderate climate warming scenario, suggesting mosquito-borne disease is likely to be a continued threat in response to climate change. The projected geographical ranges can be used to inform disease risk analyses and mitigation strategies in response to climate change.

生物環境工学
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