2023-11-30 バース大学
◆楽観主義は特に雇用、投資、貯蓄などの財政的な意思決定に影響を与え、誤った判断を引き起こす可能性があります。高い認知能力を持つ人々はより現実的かつ慎重で、楽観的な思考が重要な意思決定において不利な結果を生む可能性が示唆されました。
<関連情報>
- https://www.bath.ac.uk/announcements/optimistic-thinking-linked-with-lower-cognitive-abilities-new-research/
- https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/01461672231209400
人生の(B)右側を見る: 認知能力と経済的期待のミスマッチ Looking on the (B)right Side of Life: Cognitive Ability and Miscalibrated Financial Expectations
Chris Dawson
Journal of Industrial Textiles Published:November 10, 2023
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1177/01461672231209400
Abstract
It is a puzzle why humans tend toward unrealistic optimism, as it can lead to excessively risky behavior and a failure to take precautionary action. Using data from a large nationally representative U.K. sample (N=36,312), our claim is that optimism bias is partly a consequence of low cognition—as measured by a broad range of cognitive skills, including memory, verbal fluency, fluid reasoning and numerical reasoning. We operationalize unrealistic optimism as the difference between a person’s financial expectation and the financial realization that follows, measured annually over a decade. All else being equal, those highest on cognitive ability experience a 22% (53.2%) increase in the probability of realism (pessimism) and a 34.8% reduction in optimism compared with those lowest on cognitive ability. This suggests that the negative consequences of an excessively optimistic mindset may, in part, be a side product of the true driver, low cognitive ability.
