パターンを予測:疫学研究者がGoogleトレンド検索データを用いてRSV小児科入院を予測(Predicting patterns:Epidemiology researcher uses Google Trend search data to predict RSV pediatric hospitalizations)

2023-12-22

2023-12-21 デラウェア大学 (UD)

◆デラウェア大学の流行病学助教授、Tarang Parekh氏は、Google Trendsの検索データを活用してRSV(呼吸道合胞体ウイルス)による小児入院を予測する研究を行いました。2019年のGoogle Trendsデータと小児入院データベースの分析から、RSV検索とRSVに関連する小児入院の関連性を発見しました。
◆この先駆的な研究は、RSV関心の増加が1〜2か月後に小児入院の増加と関連していることを示し、医療制度の負担軽減に寄与する可能性があります。RSVは5歳未満の子供に年間100〜300人の死亡をもたらし、58,000件以上の入院を引き起こす。 Perekh氏の研究は、RSV季節の予測が病院の準備を助け、RSVに対処するための対策をとることができる可能性を提案しています。

<関連情報>

歴史的なGoogleトレンド検索からRSV関連小児入院のリードタイムを予測する
Predicting Lead-Time RSV-Related Pediatric Hospitalizations From Historic Google Trend Search

Parth Bhatt,NarendrasinhTarang Parekh,Sahithi Pemmasani,Nadia Shaikh,Angela Jochebed Boateng,Keyur Donda,Harshit Doshi,Fredrick Dapaah-Siakwan
Hospital Pediatrics Published:October 20 2023
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1542/hpeds.2022-007095

OBJECTIVES
Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) causes seasonal outbreaks of respiratory tract infections in children, leading to increased emergency department visits and hospitalizations. Although the risk of severe illnesses difficult to predict, the sudden surge in RSV may strain the health care system. Therefore, the objective of this study was to examine the utility of Google Trends search activity on RSV to predict changes in RSV-related hospitalizations in children in the United States in 2019.

METHODS
A retrospective cross-sectional analysis of pediatric hospitalization was conducted using the 2019 HCUP-Kids Inpatient Database. Google Trends search activity for “RSV” was abstracted as a monthly relative interest score for 2019. RSV-related hospitalizations were identified using International Classification of Diseases 9/10 codes. We applied finite distributed lag models to estimate the causal effect over time of historical relative search activity and long-run propensity to calculate the cumulative effect of changes in relative search activity on admission rate.

RESULTS
Of the total 102 127 RSV-related pediatric hospitalizations, 90% were in those aged ≤2 years. Admissions were common in males (55%), non-Hispanic Whites (50%), and South region (39%). Across 2o successive months, the cumulative effect of a 1-unit score increase in relative interest was associated with an increase of 140.7 (95% confidence interval, 96.2–185.2; P < .05) RSV-related admissions.

CONCLUSIONS
Historic Google Trends search activity for RSV predicts lead-time RSV-related pediatric hospitalization. Further studies are needed to validate these findings using regional health systems.