気候税の転換が健康と環境に寄与(A food tax shift could save lives – without a price hike in the average shopping basket)

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2025-10-24 チャルマース工科大学

チャルマース工科大学などの研究チームは、健康的な食品の付加価値税(VAT)を撤廃し、気候負荷の高い食品に課税する「食料税制シフト」の効果を試算し、スウェーデンで年間約700人の早死を防げる可能性を示した。果物・野菜・全粒穀物の価格が約11%下がり、赤肉や加工程肉は約25%上昇する想定で、食生活改善とCO₂排出を年間70万トン削減できると推計。所得層に関わらず家計支出は平均的に中立で、政府財政にも長期的に有益とされた。研究は『Ecological Economics』誌に掲載され、チャルマース工科大学、カロリンスカ研究所、スウェーデン農業科学大学が共同で実施した。

<関連情報>

より健康的で持続可能な食生活のためのコスト中立的な食品税改革 Cost-neutral food tax reforms for healthier and more sustainable diets

Jörgen Larsson, Edvin Månsson, Elin Röös, Sarah Säll, Emma Patterson, Liselotte Schäfer Elinder, Jonas Nässén, Emma Ejelöv
Ecological Economics  Available online: 15 October 2025
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2025.108822

気候税の転換が健康と環境に寄与(A food tax shift could save lives – without a price hike in the average shopping basket)

Highlights

  • Food tax reforms can bring substantial environmental and health benefits.
  • Reforms can cut food climate footprint equal to 8 % of car emissions in Sweden.
  • The improved diets may save twice as many lives as road traffic fatalities.
  • Cost-neutral designs ensure that no income group is financially disadvantaged.

Abstract

This study evaluates cost-neutral food tax reforms integrating climate and health objectives, compared with strictly climate- and health-focused reforms. Results indicate that a strict climate-focused reform risks negative health outcomes, while the strict health-focused reform achieves only 40 % of the climate benefit of the integrated reforms and adversely impacts animal welfare.

Integrated tax reforms, however, could reduce Sweden’s food carbon footprint by an amount equivalent to an 8 % reduction in passenger car emissions, alongside co-benefits such as decreased pesticide and fertilizer use and lower ammonia emissions. In addition, the healthier diets simulated as a result of the integrated reforms are estimated to save more than twice as many lives as those lost to road traffic fatalities.

Furthermore, the strict climate- and health-focused reforms lead to higher food costs, disproportionately affecting low-income groups. The integrated reforms were designed to be cost-neutral by applying subsidies in the form of VAT exemptions on healthy foods or through the redistribution of tax revenues to all citizens. This study demonstrates that it is possible to design food tax reforms to achieve substantial environmental and health improvements while avoiding additional financial burdens on consumers, suggesting a promising pathway for policy development.

医療・健康
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