2022-06-08 ノースカロライナ州立大学(NCState)
Communications Biology誌に掲載されたこの研究では、研究者がコンピューターシミュレーションツールを使って、斑点ランタンフライ(Lycorma delicatula)の拡散を抑える努力を止めた場合の米国内での拡散時期を予測したものである。その結果、2027年までにノースカロライナ州まで拡大する可能性が高く、同年にはカリフォルニア州のブドウ生産郡に最初に到達する可能性があると予測されました。
<関連情報>
- https://news.ncsu.edu/2022/06/invasive-insect-that-kills-grapes-could-reach-california-wine-region-by-2027/
- https://www.nature.com/articles/s42003-022-03447-0
予防的管理なしに2033年までにカリフォルニアに定着すると予測される斑点状ランタンフライ Spotted lanternfly predicted to establish in California by 2033 without preventative management
Chris Jones,Megan M. Skrip,Benjamin J. Seliger,Shannon Jones,Tewodros Wakie,Yu Takeuchi,Vaclav Petras,Anna Petrasova & Ross K. Meentemeyer
Communications Biology Published:08 June 2022
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1038/s42003-022-03447-0
Abstract
Models that are both spatially and temporally dynamic are needed to forecast where and when non-native pests and pathogens are likely to spread, to provide advance information for natural resource managers. The potential US range of the invasive spotted lanternfly (SLF, Lycorma delicatula) has been modeled, but until now, when it could reach the West Coast’s multi-billion-dollar fruit industry has been unknown. We used process-based modeling to forecast the spread of SLF assuming no treatments to control populations occur. We found that SLF has a low probability of first reaching the grape-producing counties of California by 2027 and a high probability by 2033. Our study demonstrates the importance of spatio-temporal modeling for predicting the spread of invasive species to serve as an early alert for growers and other decision makers to prepare for impending risks of SLF invasion. It also provides a baseline for comparing future control options.
