2026-07-22 インペリアル・カレッジ・ロンドン（ICL）
＜関連情報＞
- https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/articles/2026/more-young-adults-developing-type-2-diabetes/
- https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanepe/article/PIIS2666-7762(26)00176-6/fulltext
2型糖尿病の発症率と診断時のBMIの傾向（年齢、性別、民族別、2011～2024年）：英国国民糖尿病監査の人口ベース分析 Trends in type 2 diabetes incidence and BMI at diagnosis by age, sex, and ethnicity, 2011–2024: a population-based analysis of the English National Diabetes Audit
Naomi Holman ∙ Jackie O’Keefe ∙ Edward Gregg ∙ Garry Daniel Tan ∙ Kamlesh Khunti ∙ Jonathan Valabhjii ∙ et al.
The Lancet Regional Health – Europe Published: July 21, 2026
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.lanepe.2026.101764
Summary
Background
Early-onset type 2 diabetes is associated with aggressive disease progression, long-term health burden and reduced life expectancy. Trends in incidence have not been comprehensively described.
Methods
Using data from the English National Diabetes Audit, age-standardised incidence rates for adults with type 2 diabetes were calculated by age, sex, and ethnicity between 2011 and 2024. Poisson regression models were created to study incidence over time. Annual change in median BMI within 26 weeks of diagnosis were calculated.
Findings
Age-standardised incidence increased among adults aged 20–29 years (RR 1.021 [95% CI 1.017–1.026] per year in males, 1.030 [1.026–1.034] in females) and 30–39 years (1.013 [1.012–1.015] in males, 1.03 [1.028–1.032] in females). Incidence increased minimally in males aged 40–59 years (1.006 [1.005–1.006]), was rising in females (1.018 [1.017–1.019]) and declined in males and females aged 60–79 years (0.983 [0.983–0.984] in males, 0.985 in females 0.985 [0.984–0.985]). Increasing incidence in young adults were observed in all sex and ethnicity subgroups except Asian males (20–39-years) but highest rates were in White females (30–39-years) and Black females (20–29). BMI at diagnosis increased in all subgroups over time but was highest in younger adults and higher in females than males. The annual change in younger adults was double that of older (20–29 year-old-males +0.17 kg/m2/year [0.08–0.26] and females +0.17 [0.09–0.26]; 30–39-year-old males +0.21 [0.18–0.24] and females +0.20 [0.16–0.24]; 40–59 year-old-males +0.06 [0.04–0.07] and females +0.09 [0.06–0.12]; 60–79 year old males +0.08 [0.06–0.09] and females +0.11 [0.08–0.13]).
Interpretation
Since 2011, incidence of type 2 diabetes has risen significantly in young adults across most ethnicity and sex subgroups (especially females) despite minimal changes or declining rates at older ages. This trend parallels greater increases in BMI-at-diagnosis in young people, highlighting a shift in disease burden and the urgent need for earlier prevention, and focused obesity interventions in early-life.
