2024-01-29 シンガポール国立大学(NUS)
Clockwise from top left: The garnet pitta (Pitta granatina coccinea) was last seen in Singapore in 1949. Additionally, the Peters’s keelback snake (Hebius petersii) and half-banded kuhli loach (Pangio semicincta) have gone extinct in Singapore. Photo credits: Keita Sin, Tan Heok Hui and Kelvin Lim
◆研究は、新しい統計モデルを使用し、暗い絶滅(未発見のまま絶滅した種)を考慮しています。これにより、2003年の推定の半分の絶滅率が得られました。今後の東南アジアにおける森林伐採の継続により、2100年までには18%の種が喪失する可能性があり、これに対応して魅力的な種を中心とした保全戦略への転換が提案されています。
<関連情報>
- https://news.nus.edu.sg/novel-method-estimate-biodiversity-loss/
- https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2309034120
シンガポールにおける生物多様性の発見と喪失の2世紀 Two centuries of biodiversity discovery and loss in Singapore
Ryan A. Chisholm, Nadiah P. Kristensen, Frank E. Rheindt, +22, and Y. C. Keita Sin
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Published:December 11, 2023
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2309034120
Significance
Accurate estimates of tropical extinction rates are needed to evaluate human impacts on biodiversity and inform conservation planning. Singapore has lost most of its tropical primary forest since 1819 and yet has an exceptionally detailed biodiversity record. We compiled the largest database of Singapore biodiversity records to date (>50,000 individual records; >3,000 species; 10 major taxonomic groups) and estimated extinctions using statistical methods that account for “dark extinctions”—extinctions of undiscovered species. The estimated overall extinction rate was 37%, a factor of two lower than previous estimates for Singapore, although extinctions were concentrated among larger, charismatic species. Extrapolations suggest that by 2100 Southeast Asia will resemble a “tropical Europe,” with roughly 80% of the original species surviving in human-dominated landscapes.
Abstract
There is an urgent need for reliable data on the impacts of deforestation on tropical biodiversity. The city-state of Singapore has one of the most detailed biodiversity records in the tropics, dating back to the turn of the 19th century. In 1819, Singapore was almost entirely covered in primary forest, but this has since been largely cleared. We compiled more than 200 y of records for 10 major taxonomic groups in Singapore (>50,000 individual records; >3,000 species), and we estimated extinction rates using recently developed and novel statistical models that account for “dark extinctions,” i.e., extinctions of undiscovered species. The estimated overall extinction rate was 37% (95% CI [31 to 42%]). Extrapolating our Singapore observations to a future business-as-usual deforestation scenario for Southeast Asia suggests that 18% (95% CI [16 to 22%]) of species will be lost regionally by 2100. Our extinction estimates for Singapore and Southeast Asia are a factor of two lower than previous estimates that also attempted to account for dark extinctions. However, we caution that particular groups such as large mammals, forest-dependent birds, orchids, and butterflies are disproportionately vulnerable.
