2026-03-17 スタンフォード大学
＜関連情報＞
- https://news.stanford.edu/stories/2026/03/climate-change-disease-outbreaks-dengue-fever-research
- https://www.cell.com/one-earth/fulltext/S2590-3322(26)00020-5
人為的な気候変動によって悪化した極端な降雨が、ペルーにおける2023年の記録的なデング熱流行を引き起こした Extreme precipitation, exacerbated by anthropogenic climate change, drove Peru’s record-breaking 2023 dengue outbreak
Mallory J. Harris ∙ Jared T. Trok ∙ Kevin S. Martel ∙ … ∙ César V. Munayco ∙ Andrés G. Lescano ∙ Erin A. Mordecai
One Earth Published:March 17, 2026
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2026.101619
Science for society
Anthropogenic climate change is increasing the risk of extreme weather that can lead to infectious disease epidemics, but few studies have directly measured this health consequence of climate change. Extreme precipitation can drive outbreaks of mosquito-borne diseases by displacing people, disrupting public health activities, and creating aquatic breeding habitats. Here, we quantify the effects of extreme precipitation during Cyclone Yaku in northwestern Peru in March 2023. The cyclone was immediately followed by a dengue outbreak where cases exceeded historic averages by 10-fold. We estimate that 60% of the cases (or 22,014 cases) reported over 3 months in the affected districts were attributable to extreme precipitation during Cyclone Yaku. Compared with the preindustrial era, extremely wet March conditions were 31% more likely to occur (and 189% more likely to co-occur with warm temperatures suitable for dengue transmission) in recent decades in northwestern Peru. Assessing the linkages between climate change, extreme weather, and outbreaks of dengue and other infectious diseases is crucial for understanding the current impacts of climate change and for preparing for future health risks.
Highlights
- Cyclone Yaku was followed by a large dengue epidemic in northwest Peru in 2023
- Extreme precipitation during Cyclone Yaku caused 60% of dengue cases
- More cyclone-attributable cases occurred in warm, urban, flood-susceptible districts
- Global warming has increased the risk of warm, very wet March weather in the region
Summary
Climate change is increasing the likelihood of extreme weather that can drive outbreaks of climate-sensitive diseases. For example, the dengue burden has recently increased rapidly with unusually warm and wet conditions. However, linkages between historical climate change, extreme weather, and mosquito-borne disease have not been traced quantitatively. Here, we analyze the contribution of extreme precipitation to dengue in northwestern Peru during Cyclone Yaku in March 2023. Using generalized synthetic control methods, we estimate that 60% of cases were attributable to extreme precipitation, and more cyclone-attributable dengue cases occurred in warmer, more flood-susceptible, and more urban districts. Historical climate forcing has increased the likelihood of concurrent extreme precipitation and warm temperatures suitable for dengue transmission in northwestern Peru in March by 189%. This case study is one of the first to estimate cases of mosquito-borne illness caused by extreme weather conditions and shows that those conditions were made more likely by climate change.
