潜在的な危険について具体的に知るほど、人は恐怖心を抱かなくなります。(The More Specifics People Have on Potential Dangers, the Less Fearful They Become)

確率に関する詳細な情報を提供することで、ネガティブな結果に対する恐怖を軽減できることが明らかになった。 Providing detailed information on probabilities can reduce fear of negative outcomes, according to new UC San Diego research

2022-10-14 カリフォルニア大学サンディエゴ校(UCSD)

<関連情報>

• https://today.ucsd.edu/story/the-more-specifics-people-have-on-potential-dangers-the-less-fearful-they-become
• https://psycnet.apa.org/doiLanding?doi=10.1037%2Fxge0001306

アンリケンシー効果:より多くを知ることで、より少ないという認識が生まれる場合。 The unlikelihood effect: When knowing more creates the perception of less.

Karmarkar, U. R., & Kupor, D.
Journal of Experimental Psychology: General  Advance online publication.
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1037/xge0001306

Abstract

People face increasingly detailed information related to a range of risky decisions. To aid individuals in thinking through such risks, various forms of policy and health messaging often enumerate their causes. Whereas some prior literature suggests that adding information about causes of an outcome increases its perceived likelihood, we identify a novel mechanism through which the opposite regularly occurs. Across seven primary and six supplementary experiments, we find that the estimated likelihood of an outcome decreases when people learn about the (by- definition lower) probabilities of the pathways that lead to that outcome. This “unlikelihood” bias exists despite explicit communication of the outcome’s total objective probability and occurs for both positive and negative outcomes. Indeed, awareness of a low-probability pathway decreases subjective perceptions of the outcome’s likelihood even when its addition objectively increases the outcome’s actual probability. These findings advance the current understanding of how people integrate information under uncertainty and derive subjective perceptions of risk. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2022 APA, all rights reserved)