2026-08-05 マックス・プランク研究所（MPI）
Age-specific incidence rates (logarithmic scale) of heart attack, stroke, hip fracture, and cancer at diagnosis ages 60–90 for men and women, birth cohorts 1910, 1920, 1930, 1940, and 1950, Sweden. © MPIDR
＜関連情報＞
- https://www.mpg.de/26901678/fewer-heart-attacks-more-cancer-cases-and-better-survival-chances
- https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanepe/article/PIIS2666-7762(26)00197-3/fulltext
スウェーデンの出生コホートにおける心筋梗塞、脳卒中、股関節骨折、および癌の発生率、生存率、および有病率の傾向：人口ベースの登録研究 Incidence, survival, and prevalence trends for myocardial infarction, stroke, hip fracture, and cancer across Swedish birth cohorts: a population-based register study
Anna-Kathleen Piereth ∙ Katharina Schmidt-Mende ∙ Karin Modig ∙ Marcus Ebeling
The Lancet Regional Health – Europe Published:July 21, 2026
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.lanepe.2026.101785
Summary
Background
Medical progress reshapes population health through preventing disease onset and improving disease survival. It is unclear which of these forces has advanced and altered the disease landscape more. This study compares age-specific changes in incidence and survival and their influence on prevalence across major diseases.
Methods
Using register data covering the total Swedish population from 1994 to 2022 and the birth cohorts 1904 to 1960, we traced first events of myocardial infarction (MI), stroke, hip fracture, and cancer. We analysed incidence rates, one- and five-year survival for ages 60–90. We compared average cohort-to-cohort changes in all measures, and their effect on prevalence at ages 70, 80, and 90 by cohort and sex.
Findings
For MI, stroke, and hip fracture, relative improvements in incidence outpaced those in survival at every age. For example, MI incidence among men aged 60 declined on average by 2.0% (SD = 7.0%) every year, resulting in an absolute decrease from 7 (274/37,411; cohort 1934) to 4 (234/54,144; cohort 1960) cases per 1,000 person-years. One-year survival for the same group increased on average by 0.9% (SD = 3.2%) yearly, leading to an absolute increase from 70% (193/274) to 88% (206/234). Prevalence declined for MI, stroke, and hip fracture with the magnitude varying by age group. The largest decrease occurred for MI among women aged 80, where the prevalence declined from 4.5% (1,554 incident cases per 34,676 persons alive; cohort 1924) to 2.7% (1,105/41,122; cohort 1942), corresponding to a relative decrease of −40% during the observation period. Cancer showed increasing incidence, improvements in survival, and increases in prevalence. The largest prevalence increase was observed among women aged 80, where prevalence rose from 8.0% (2,832/35,568; cohort 1922) to 12.5% (4,563/36,609; cohort 1941), corresponding to a relative increase of 57%.
Interpretation
Progress against MI, stroke, and hip fracture was strongest before diagnosis (primary prevention), but for cancer, especially evident at or after diagnosis (secondary and tertiary prevention). This pattern reflects a shift in the disease landscape of the Swedish population from severe acute events to chronic conditions.
Funding
Not applicable.
